25bp HIKE — hawkish language, dots move up
p=30%3,853 – 3,914(-4% to -2.5%)
- 2Y pushes >4.45%
- Real 10y +10bp
- DXY breakout
Sell rallies into the statement. Watch 3,986 support; a close below opens 3,900. Fade only if breakevens rise with yields.
MKT
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| Instrument | Last | Chg | % | Range | 30d |
|---|
MAC
Macro / rates monitor
FRED
| UST 2Y | —% | — |
| UST 10Y | —% | — |
| 10Y REAL (TIPS) | —% | — |
| 10Y BREAKEVEN | —% | — |
| FED TARGET (UPPER) | —% | — |
| USD BROAD INDEX | — | — |
Regime read
Core PCE YoY
3.41%
14-month high, re-accelerating
Headline CPI YoY
3.46%
Above target, sticky services
Fed target (upper)
3.75%
Below 2Y — market pricing a hike
Gold vs Jan-26 peak
-24.5%
Peak 5,318 → drawdown regime
Real 10Y since Jan
+47bp
Primary drag on bullion
Hike prob (2Y-implied)
~60%
2Y 4.31% vs 3.75% target
Gold sensitivities
| 2Y UST yield | -0.023 | % gold per +1bp | R²0.41 |
| 10Y TIPS real yield | -0.031 | % gold per +1bp | R²0.58 |
| DXY | -0.62 | % gold per +1% DXY | R²0.47 |
| 10Y breakeven | 0.048 | % gold per +1bp | R²0.22 |
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CHT
GC=F — price action
——SYNC
KEY LEVELSSUP 3986 / 3900 / 3855RES 4115 / 4147 / 4300
FOMC
FOMC scenario engine — gold
BASE 4,014.00SYNC
UST 2Y
—
—
FED UPPER
—
—
10Y REAL
—
—
10Y B/E
—
—
HIKE ODDS (2Y)
—
front-end implied
MODEL DRIFT
—
betas × 1m rate moves
25bp HIKE — framed as terminal / one-and-done
p=30%4,054 – 4,114(1% to 2.5%)
- Front-end rallies
- Curve bull-steepens
- DXY fades
Classic 'dovish hike'. Gold historically +16% at 252d after hiking cycles. Buy the flush, target 4,115 then 4,147.
HOLD — dovish tone, cuts still on the table
p=22%4,094 – 4,154(2% to 3.5%)
- 2Y drops >10bp
- Real yields compress
- Credibility discount
Strongest short-term outcome. Break of 4,147 turns 4,300 into the next magnet. Trail stops under 4,050.
HOLD — hawkish tone, 'higher for longer'
p=18%3,882 – 3,942(-3.3% to -1.8%)
- Yields rise on a hold
- Inflation seen transitory
- Positioning unwind
Historically the worst configuration: -3.25% over the following week across 55 events. Initial pop is a trap — fade it.
Probabilities are re-weighted every 15 minutes from the live 2Y vs Fed-target spread and breakeven momentum; price bands are the historical study applied to spot 4,014.
Event study — 169 FOMC meetings since 2000 (mean % move in gold)
| Decision | n | Day 0 | +5d | +21d | +63d | +252d | Hit 1y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut | 33 | +0.28% | +0.71% | +2.04% | +5.40% | +17.70% | 79% |
| Hold | 99 | +0.12% | +0.19% | +0.48% | +1.90% | +5.95% | 66% |
| Hike | 37 | +0.07% | +0.34% | +1.36% | +4.10% | +16.00% | 95% |
Surprise matrix — decision × yield reaction
| Dovish Cut (yields fall) | n=21 | +0.61% | +1.42% | Best case. Real yields compress, gold bid. |
| Hawkish Cut (yields rise) | n=12 | -0.44% | -1.11% | Cut framed as one-and-done. |
| Dovish Hold (yields fall) | n=44 | +0.55% | +1.18% | Market reads pause as pivot. |
| Hawkish Hold (yields rise) | n=55 | -0.83% | -3.25% | WORST historical outcome for gold. |
| Dovish Hike (terminal signal) | n=19 | +0.72% | +1.9% | 'Last hike' repricing. |
| Hawkish Hike (more to come) | n=18 | -0.68% | -1.74% | Front-end sells off. |
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